IMMIGRATION & CRIME IN IRELAND: Nothing to see here (literally)
- Finbar O'Marcaigh
- Nov 5, 2024
- 6 min read
This article discusses the association, if any, between immigration and crime with the purpose to contribute to the democratic debate on mass immigration into Ireland. The specific subject of immigration and crime is sensitive and emotionally charged.
From the outset the disclaimer must be made but with genuine intention that CASIP does not believe that most immigrants arriving to our shores are criminals. Far from it, most arrive to work having successfully applied for work and student visas. Equally, there are genuine asylum seekers who have come for safety and have no more inclination to crime than any of us.
It must also be acknowledged that the compulsion of a wanted criminal to escape to the easiest and safest destination is as natural as the compulsion of water to find the easiest path to flow. Since humanity began recording history criminals have fled from one place to another. Today is no different and as Ireland's lax rules around identification of IPAS Applicants continues the state may be the route of least resistance for criminals. Navigating fairly through a conversation on this subject can be difficult but necessary.
In the day-to-day life of people living in the Irish Republic whispered conversations are commonplace, often accompanied by brief glances around to see who might be listening in. The topic in such instances is usually mass immigration and often at some point the talk sets on crimes, alleged and proven, committed by people arrived to our shores over the last decade. With few trustworthy sources to inform people of what's going on, third-party descriptions and online video clips are recited as evidence of the detrimental impact of uncontrolled mass immigration into the state
It's not just on street corners and coffee shops that such anxious chatter is happening with plenty available on social media. If the truth be told social media is the place to go to literally see evidence of criminal incidents which appear to involve those who have immigrated into the Republic. The information-space around mass immigration is pitiful, devoid of dependable sources. Neither street corner whispers nor recorded 'incidents' on social media can be adjudged as a safe and sound barometer of the causal association between higher crime rates and growing numbers of arriving immigrants.
Where then can the public establish the facts in Ireland? In 2023 a senior Garda, speaking on RTE, stated that there is no evidence that immigration is impacting crime figures in the state. Having sought out statistics on the supposition, one discovers there are none to be had or at least none accessible to the public. This being the case the Garda on RTE was being a little miscievous and togue-in-cheek in his claim.
With no official figures from an Garda Síochána, Ireland's policing force, one might expect that an educated guess might be possible vis-a-vis a dedicated review of court cases in the state. Surprisingly, this is no solution as it is increasingly the norm that Judges are directing the press and public not to disclose names and nationalities of 'non-national' criminals found guilty of crimes in the state. Corporate and state funded media describing convicted criminals born outside of the state and recently arrived as “a Limerick man' or “a Dublin man” has a similar effect in muddying the waters.
The only Irish study available to the public is a very recent one by Criminologists in Maynooth University who analysed the numbers of non-nationals in Irish prisons. They concluded that there was the EU median of 15% prisoners who were not born in Ireland with most of them defined as "EU nationals". This is somewhat higher than the 12% of non-nationals represented in the Irish population in 2022 according to the CSO. Although somewhat enlightening, the study focus is not on crime and immigration but rather the need for dedicated services for such prisoners. What also makes the figures somewhat a moot point is the fact that many immigrants into Ireland convicted of a crime are released with suspended sentences and from recent Judgements made public it would appear Justices are taking non-national status and lack of the English language into consideration when sentencing as well as the severe shortage in prison places. This being the case prisoner figures are not reflective of crimes committed by immigrant persons.
With the barricades against 'knowing the facts' so high in Ireland, where's a poor inquisitive citizen to go? The European Union research databases maybe? University studies?
Confusingly, researching all of the above results in no more clarity than having no data at all. The contradictions found when trying to search for evidence or otherwise of links between immigration and crime are perplexing.
After a review of studies examining the link between crime and immigration a number of observations stand out. Firstly, there is no such research from the Irish Republic. Having taken onboard the preceding paragraphs this must come as no surprise to the reader. There are several studies from the European continent, specifically Germany and Sweden, that were from Universities and came with a high degree of accreditation and citation.
A second observation is that the majority of available studies online suggest there is no (null) effect and even a negative effect between immigration and crime. Let's be clear what is meant by 'negative'. In common parlance one might think that means that immigration has a 'negative' or 'bad' effect on crime, that it makes it worse or increases it. That is not what is meant by 'negative' effect in statistical research. What the studies are saying in fact is that immigration has null effect or may reduce crime (negative). To make sure things are clear in future this article will refer to such a 'negative' effect as a 'negative reducing' effect.
Even though the majority of studies suggest that immigration and crime do not have a causal association, there are some studies that conclude otherwise. What is notable from a study method point of view is that all of the studies varied considerably in terms of how they were conducted, what groups and time periods were examined, and how the data was analysed.
What is most notable about these differences is that the studies that had the least complicated methodologies indicated a positive relationship between immigration and crime (causal effect) and the studies with the most complicated analytical methods concluded that immigration has a null or even negative-reducing effect on crime. The studies that found a positive relationship between immigration and crime tended to examine police/court sources and the studies that found a null/negative reducing relationship tended to examine very broad statistics such as comparing numbers of immigrants in a given time period and rate of crime (the links to several example studies are at the end of this article for readers to consider the variations themselves).
What one can deduce from this is that studies that used clear, descriptive data with a clear subject data-set (immigrant – to – crime specific) from Police and court sources found that crime increased with immigration. These studies used clear comparative methods easily understood by most. The studies that used data-sets so broad that they failed to actually address their research aims also used the most complicated analytical methods and were also more likely to be directly funded and flaunted by the EU.
One can only deduce after reviewing the literature and research on the matter that Academia can not be relied upon to enlighten the average citizen on the issue of immigration and crime. Having hawked the question through social media, corporate media and academia, where else can a person try to establish if a causal link exists? Politics and the Police?
In Germany, despite being a cheerleader for mass immigration into the country, Chancellor Olaf Scholz in an address in the Reichstag recently spoke about the need to deport criminal migrants and asylum seekers. He came under pressure for his remarks from all sides of the House, the pro-open border parties condemning him for “right wing” remarks, the controlled-immigration parties jeering him for his insincerity.
Sholz was responding to recent figures from the police and courts services indicating that although immigrants currently make up 15% of the German population, they account for over 40% of all crime in 2023. Figures also revealed that the number of non-German suspects increased by 22.6 percent in 2022 and 17.8 percent in 2023.
According to some of the studies already referred to the latest policing and court data from Germany is wrong. According to them immigration reduces crime. Who can we believe? In Ireland we don't have the luxury of choice at all as we are kept in the dark. With no trustworthy Garda or Court data the public are left to draw their conclusions from social media posts and NGO public statements. At the same time they are being asked to vote in an upcoming election in which the impact of mass immigration is a key topic.
The Community Alliance for Sensible Immigration Policy (CASIP) is calling for the department of Justice to collate detailed data on crimes committed by national and non-national persons in Ireland, types of crimes, method of entry to the state, if identification was presented on entry, previous convictions in this and any other jurisdiction, amongst a set of variables. Such information, made available to the public, will assist Gardaí in their duty, inform the state in formulating immigration policy in terms of domestic security, and will enhance the democratic process.